MLB 2008 Preview Part One: National League West

Over the next several weeks I will preview the upcoming Major League Baseball season on division at a time by addressing the key issue each team faces this summer. I’ll wrap it up with my post season picks and predictions for award winners. First up is the National League West.

Arizona finished with the best record in the National League last season despite giving up 20 more runs than they scored, thanks in large part to their outstanding 32-20 record in one run games. The key factor in this was a bullpen that did not relinquish leads, no mater how small, that was anchored by Jose Valverde and his 47 saves. Valverde took off in free agency and now Brandon Lyon will move into the closer’s role for 2008. With no significant changes on offense, it seems likely the Diamondbacks will have to rely heavily on their pitching again and need their bullpen to nail down save opportunities.

Lyon has had successful stints as a closer in past. He was 9 of 12 in save opportunities for Boston in 2003 and 14 of 15 for Arizona in 2005. In fact, he could have been the Diamondbacks’ closer for the last several years had his 2005 season not been cut short to injury. The last two seasons he has posted ERA’s of 3.89 and 2.86, however without the strikeout numbers you like to see from a closer. Given his past success in the role however, there is no reason he shouldn’t fit right in succeed in closing out games for a team that will be heavily reliant on him.

The Rockies miraculous run to the World Series was well publicized last year as they won 21 of 22 games before getting swept by the Red Sox in the Fall Classic. Many feel that they just got hot down the stretch and were a fluke team in 2007. That couldn’t be further from the truth and the Rockies will be contenders in 2008. The heart of the lineup that scored the second most runs in the National League last season returns with MVP candidate Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki. While anyone would expect a team in Colorado to score plenty of runs, it is always pitching that becomes the question. The Rockies’ pitching staff posted a very respectable 4.32 ERA last season, but what may be surprising to many, is that their road ERA was better than that of the vaunted San Diego pitching staff (4.29 to 4.42). With young fireballer Ubaldo Jiminez joining the rotation full time, a solid staff led by Jeff Francis becomes even better. Colorado may miss the playoffs this year due to a competitive division, but they will be one of the teams right there at the end battling for a berth.

Last season the Dodgers ranked 10^th in the National League in runs scored, 13^th in slugging percentage and 15^th in home runs. Their lineup will be vastly different from opening day last year as they are implementing a number of young prospects who are expected to revitalize the offense lead by first baseman James Loney, rightfielder Matt Kemp and third baseman Andy Laroche. However, without any of these players having played an entire Major League season, it is unknown if they’ll be able to generate consistent offense over 162 games.

Andruw Jones signed in the offseason at a discount price after enduring his worst offensive season in his career, hitting .222, and is looking to prove that he is still an elite offensive player at age 30. The Dodgers sorely need Jones to become the reliable run producer to anchor this young lineup. In recent years, Jones has become more and more of an all or nothing hitter, taking monstrous hacks trying to hit the ball out and also racking up high strike out numbers. Coming to Los Angeles is probably not the right move for him as Dodger Stadium is a terrible hitters park, plus he will have to play 18 games at San Diego and San Francisco. The Dodgers will likely have to rely more heavily on Kemp, Loney and Laroche then they might otherwise like.

Kouzmanoff was added last year in a trade with the Cleveland Indians in hopes of providing some badly needed offense. Coming over as one of the more highly touted offensive prospects in the game, the thirdbaseman put up respectable numbers as a rookie hitting .275 with 74 RBI and 18 home runs in the cavernous Petco Park. Prior to the All-Star break, Kouzmanoff was hitting only .228 and was in danger of losing his job. He finally settled in and hit .317 along with 11 of his 18 home runs after the break.

With a reputation for good plate discipline and the ability to make contact, Kouzmanoff should continue his upward push and become one of the better offensive thirdbaseman in the game. Projected for the number three spot in the Padres’ lineup, they will need him to produce and to do so right from the start. San Diego will never be confused with an offensive juggernaut, but with his struggles behind him and a year under his belt, Kouzmanoff should give the Padres some extra pop in the middle of the lineup this year.

For the first time in 15 years, the Giants will play a season without Barry Bonds in the lineup. Early word from Giants camp is that the clubhouse is looser and the players are more comfortable than they ever were when Bonds ruled the kingdom. Unfortunately, those good feelings can’t translate to offense. Last year Matt Cain posted a 7-16 record despite a 3.65 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .235 average. Giants fans should expect to see more of the same this season from a team with one of the better rotations in the National League, but one that will feature Benji Molina hitting cleanup. The Giants will take the approach that they will have to manufacture runs this year, but for a team that finished last season 14^th in the National Leauge in OBP, even that will prove difficult. Pity Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and the other pitchers that no matter how well they do, it still probably won’t be enough.