MLB 2008 Season Preview: NL Central

March 19, 2008

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Joe Sauer

MLB 2008 Season Preview: NL Central

Next up on my preview for the 2008 Major League Baseball Season is the National League Central. Here are the biggest questions which will play a factor in the season for each team.

Chicago Cubs

Can Kerry Wood stay healthy in the bullpen?

After watching Wood miss significant time due to injuries each of the last four seasons, it seems obvious that he is not going to make it as a full time starter and stay healthy. So now the Cubs are attempting to move him to the bullpen in an attempt to get a full season out of him. When he has been healthy, he is nothing short of dominant and pitching only one inning at a time, he should really be able to let it fly. So far in Spring Training the initial reports look good.

If Wood can hold down the closer role, it has a tremendous trickle down effect on the entire Cubs pitching staff. Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol provide an excellent tandem of set up men and Ryan Dempster, who is capable of providing 200 innings, can return to the starting rotation, giving the Cubs even more depth and experience there. There are different schools of thought on whether the quantity of innings a starter goes through or the frequent appearances of a relief pitcher cause a greater strain on a pitchers’ arm, so it is tough to predict if the move to the bullpen will keep Wood healthy. Following guidelines similar to the ones the Red Sox set for Jonathan Papelbon last season could be just as beneficial to Wood. If Wood’s health does allow the Cubs pitching to fall into place, they certainly become the easy favorite in the division.

Cincinnati Reds

After Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, do the Reds have anybody who can pitch?

Last season the Reds has the worst team ERA in the Majors, including the worst bullpen ERA and the lowest save percentage in the National League. Aaron Harang might be the most underrated pitcher in the Majors and Bronson Arroyo got back on track in the second half of last season after a rough first half. After those two it’s anybody’s guess. Homer Bailey was supposed to be ready for the rotation this year, but after a rocky debut last year, he might begin this season in the minors. Johnny Cueto is another rookie who has ace potential, but with no big league experience, it will be tough to rely on him.

The bullpen should be a little better this season. Francisco Cordero provides them with the lights out closer they lacked last year which means that David Weathers can return to the set up role where he should be more comfortable. After those two, there is much less certainty and if the starters are unable to go deep into ballgames, which is a real possibility outside of Harang and Arroyo, the Reds will be in trouble.

Houston Astros

Can Miguel Tejada return to form?

After posting 150 RBI in a monster 2004 season for the Orioles, Tejada has not had more than 100 RBI in a season and his home run total has dropped each year. Additionally, his range at the shortstop position has decreased dramatically, so much so that teams interested in trading for him in the past inquired about moving him to third base. Tejada, whose dropoff in production coincides with Major League Baseball’s stricter steroid testing policy, is also a central figure in the Mitchell Report and under federal investigation for perjury. A fresh start in Houston seems to be just what he needs.

The Astros badly need to Tejada to become the some semblance run producer that he once was. Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman will carry the load of the offense this season as they did last, however, they need the help. Last year Houston ranked ranked 13th in the National League in runs scored despite Lee and Berkman both driving in over 100 runs. Newly acquired leadoff hitter Michael Bourn and second year outfielder Hunter Pence (returning from injury) should provide excellent table setters. If Tejada can regain some of his offensive prowess, the Astros lineup could become one of more powerful in the league. Unfortunately for Houston, Tejada’s body seems to be breaking down and off the field distractions, which includes the possibility of him losing his green card in light of the federal investigation, will probably lead to another down year.

Milwaukee Brewers

Can Ben Sheets stay healthy?

Sheets always seems on the verge of becoming one of the best young pitchers in the game when he is healthy, but his seasons always end up broken up by frequent stints on the DL for one thing after another. The Brewers have some young pitchers with tons of potential in Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra as well as some serviceable veterans, but they really need Sheets to become the ace of the rotation and innings eater that he is capable of. Unfortunately it is tough to predict if he is past his injuries as they have so often been the unforeseen and freak variety. With him in the rotation, a middle of the road staff becomes one in the top third of the league, something Milwaukee will need in order to compete with the Cubs.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Is there anything to be excited about in Pittsburgh?

Aside from a couple of good young pitchers in Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny, and the probable debut of centerfielder Andrew McCutchen, not a thing. In typical fashion, the Pirates did nothing to improve themselves over the winter and their awful player development leaves little to be excited about in the future. McCutchen, who will start the season in AAA, is a top 15 prospect according to Scouts, Inc. with the potential for 30 plus home runs. Even when he does get the call to the Majors, it may be a while before we see fireworks. That leaves Pittsburgh with another season of at least 90 losses.

St. Louis Cardinals

How badly will Albert Pujols elbow problems affect his performance?

The fact that he is even attempting to play is incredible as the pain Pujols is reportedly feeling in his right arm is incredible. It is certain that he will need Tommy John surgery they question is when? St. Louis is a longshot in the division with Pujols in the lineup and doesn’t stand a chance without him. He is such a talented hitter that even injured he will still put of numbers that are good by any other standard, but will probably fall short of what we have come to expect from him. His power will most notably suffer. Given that the Cardinals will start the season without ace Chris Carpenter as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery himself, it would seem wise for Pujols to call this season a wash and get healthy for next year.

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