Next up on my preview of the 2008 Major League Baseball season is the National League East. Like before, these are the key questions facing each team.
Atlanta Braves
How much do Tom Glavine and John Smoltz have left?
The Braves figure to be loaded on offense and their pitching could potentially be pretty strong depending on how this pair of 40 year-olds fair this season. Smoltz, who will turn 41 this season, is the safer bet as he has pitched over 200 innings in each season since returning to the starting rotation in 2005, each time with a sub 3.50 ERA. At his age though, a pitcher can rapidly begin to decline and he has experienced some shoulder problems already this spring. Nonetheless, I would expect him to put up another solid year.
Glavine, who just turned 42, is the bigger question. He has been good for at least 198 innings in each of the past three years, however, his ERA has gone up in each of the last two, including a jump from 3.82 to 4.45 from 2006 to 2007. The Braves should definitely get innings from Glavine, though often times he will really have to battle through them. Atlanta also hopes to get a boost from Mike Hampton who hasn’t pitched since 2005. Given his health issues it will be tough to count on him staying in the rotation and what he’ll be able to do when he is there. Most likely the Braves will be a big time player in the trade market for a starting pitcher this summer in order to keep pace with the Mets and the Phillies.
Florida Marlins
Can the Marlins keep any of their young arms healthy?
Lately Miami is where promising young arms go to die. The Marlins have taken the exact opposite approach with their young pitchers than the care that teams like the Red Sox and the Yankees have shown with theirs. This is largely due to need as Florida has been unwilling to increase the payroll to bring in free agents and have been forced to rely almost exclusively on their minor league talent pool to get innings. As a result we have seen such promising pitchers as Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Sergio Mitre have their careers derailed because of over use.
I would expect to see more of the same this year with Scott Olsen and Andrew Miller. Miller would be in the minors this season with his innings closely monitored if he were still with the Tigers, but Florida will rush him to the Big Leagues and probably pitch his arm into the ground. Florida’s lack of pitching is especially disappointing as they may be one of the more intriguing teams offensively with five players in Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, Jeremy Hermida and Mike Jacobs who are capable of potentially hitting 25 home runs each this season.
New York Mets
What will the Mets get from Pedro Martinez this year?
While Johan Santana gives them the legitimate number one starter they lacked last year and should easily be the most dominant starter in the Majors this season, he can still only take the ball once every 5 games. Pedro Martinez, however, will be the key to the pitching staff. He has shown in the past that he can still be very effective even though he no longer throws 97 thanks to his command and assortment of pitches. Now, though, he will probably have to live in the low to mid 80's and rely even more on guile than he ever has. Pedro remained effective in his brief stint last season and should put up good numbers if he can stay healthy.
Health will be the key issue with him. The Red Sox elected not to resign Pedro because they felt he would wear down before the end of the contract and it appears those concerns were correct. Pitchers don’t recover from rotator cuff surgery as they do from Tommy John surgery, especially at Pedro’s age. I remain doubtful that he will be able to make 30 starts this season, and even when he is in there, he is only good for 5 or 6 innings and will leave a lot of games for the bullpen which is full of holes. Fortunately they should at the very least be rested since Pedro will pitch the day after Santana. Regardless, the Mets are another team that will badly need to acquire more pitching in season if they expect to redeem their collapse of last year.
Philadelphia Phillies
Can Brad Lidge nail down the closer’s role?
The first thing is getting Lidge healthy. He had offseason surgery on his knee but looks to be back in the bullpen early in April. His struggles since giving up that monstrous home run to Albert Pujols in the playoffs has been well documented and he even lost his job as the closer with the Astros last season. He did regain the role in June and went on to rack up all 19 of the saves he had last season after the All-Star break. With Lidge in the closers role, the Phillies bullpen stacks up fairly well led by Tom Gordon in the setup role. Gordon is an excellent second option to close games however that greatly affects the bullpen depth unless Philadelphia wants to return Brett Myers to closer, but that leaves a gaping hole in the starting rotation.
The big question with Lidge comes when he gives up that first home run to lose a game, which is bound to happen in homer-friendly Citizens Bank Ballpark. No one has ever questioned Lidge’s stuff, only his make up to be a closer. If he lets that first blown save get to him, more will follow and so will abuse from the Philly fans who have yet to see someone they can’t boo. As long as Lidge can work past the occasional the occasional gopher ball, of which he is prone to serve now and then, he’ll be just fine.
Washington Nationals
Will a change of scenery help Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge realize their potential?
Both are highly touted prospects whose physical talents couldn’t overshadow the off the field controversy that surrounded each. As a result, the Nationals were able to acquire each on the cheap in the offseason as their original clubs grew tired of waiting for them to clean up their respective acts. Milledge has already shown flashes of his ability in limited playing time with the Mets who never seemed to give him a fair shake. Having already endured some of the rough patches that any young player inevitably goes through, he seems poised for a breakout year in Washington.
Dukes was regarded by some as the most talented prospect in the Tampa Bay farm system, even more so the Delmon Young. His inability to stay out of trouble with the law eventually led to the Rays cutting ties with him as they try to promote a new attitude within the club. Dukes more than anyone needs a fresh start, and perhaps being farther away from the rough Tampa neighborhood where he grew up with provide him with that. While he probably won’t set the league on fire this season, he should begin to realize some of his enormous potential. Washington should easily occupy the basement in the division this year, but these two players, combined with future franchise player Ryan Zimmerman give the Nationals hope as they move into a new ballpark with new ownership this season.
Keywords: Andrew Miller, Anibal Sanchez, Atlanta Braves, Brad Lidge, Brett Myers, Dan Uggla, Elijah Dukes, Florida Marlins, Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, Johan Santana, John Smoltz, Josh Johnson, Josh Willingham, Lastings Milledge, Mike Hampston, Mike Jacobs, National League East, New York Mets, Pedro Martinez, Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Zimmerman, Scott Olsen, Sergio Mitre, Tom Glavine, Tom Gordon, Washington Nationals
