Despite Hot Start, Lowrie Still Not Ready to Take Lugo's Job

With the conclusion of the Red Sox’ annual Patriot’s Day game, Boston infielder Jed Lowrie has now completed his first week in the Major Leagues. It is safe to say that he has made a remarkable first impression, especially with three RBI in his debut. At this point nearly every Theo Epstein wannabe capable of dialing into WEEI are surely grumbling that Jed Lowrie needs to assume to the role of every day starting shortstop. They can certainly make a good argument in the fact that Lowrie is batting .375 and already has more RBI in only 15 at bats than Julio Lugo has so far this season. At some point Lowrie is going to force Boston to make a decision to make him the starter as he appears to be the shortstop of the future for the Red Sox. In this same blog earlier this spring, I touted that Lowrie could begin to challenge Lugo for his job by mid season. In fact, I still feel that way. However, Lowrie is still not ready to be the starting shortstop despite his early success.

Before fans start getting carried away, let’s remember that Lowrie has had all of 16 big league at bats. He was fortunate to come roaring out of the gates in those 16 at bats, but it is still too small of a sample size to conclude that he is ready to take over as the starting shortstop on one of the biggest stages in sports. Prior to his callup, Lowrie had only played 48 games at the triple level over the last two seasons combined and was hitting a meager .160 in Pawtucket in 8 games this season.

Rookies almost always go through rough patches at the start of their career. Last season Dustin Pedroia hit below .200 for the first month of the season before going on win the Rookie of the Year award. That is not to say that Lowrie will struggle as badly as Pedroia did, however, he is even less likely to have the kind of success that Ryan Braun sustained for the Brewers last season. Struggles like Jacoby Ellsbury experienced to begin this season are a more likely scenario. Just as pitchers adjusted to find weaknesses in Ellsbury’s game, they will certainly do so with Lowrie. The fact that Lowrie has already struck out 6 times in only 16 at bats makes the probability of prolonged struggles even more likely.

So why put a rookie through the pressure of a playoff race in Boston when it isn’t one thousand percent necessary. Lugo may not be tearing the cover off the ball and his defense leaves a lot to be desired, but he hasn’t become such a glaring weakness in the lineup that the Red Sox need to panic and replace him. The possibility of losing his job might just give Lugo a little extra push to step up his performance. In fact, since Lowrie’s debut last week, Lugo has raised his average from .239 to .314, including today’s 4 for 4 performance against the Rangers.

In reality, this debate will be at least partially silenced when Mike Lowell comes off the disabled list and returns to the lineup. Lowrie will then be sent back down to Pawtucket where he can get the regular playing time he will need to further develop. If Lugo can continue to perform as he has for the past week with the knowledge that his potential replacement is not far away, the talk about making Lowrie an every day player will pass by the wayside. Someday Jed Lowrie will step in to anchor the Red Sox infield and could very well do so for 10 or more years, but not quite yet.