Looking In On The Players Involved in the Santana Trade Talks

Upon seeing Justin Masterson pick up his first Major League victory the day after Jon Lester pitched his no hitter, it got me thinking about the Red Sox’ non-trade for Johan Santana. Both Lester and Masterson were prominent names in the trade talks, along with Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie (Clay Buchholz was deemed completely off limits). There was much debate over whether or not Boston would be better off going with the proven All-World pitcher in Santana, or sticking with the young prospects on the belief that they would develop into the prominent pieces of a championship franchise that they were projected to be. So often both front offices as well as fans fall in love with prospects who have never even played a Major League game based solely on their advertised potential. Almost as often, this ends up being an irrational love affair that falls short just as it has in the past with the likes of Brian Rose, Dernell Stenson and Steve Lomasney (anyone remember these guys?). In this case, Boston’s decision to hang on to its young talent has so far worked out very well to start the season.

Lester and Ellsbury were the two centerpiece players in any potential trade for Santana. Both already had Major League experience and were unquestionably going to be in the opening day lineups for whichever team they were playing. Ellsbury so far has been the catalyst of the offense this season. He started the season slowly and was sharing time with Coco Crisp, but he has really come on in the last four weeks making it harder to keep him out of the lineup. In 138 at bats from the lead-off spot, Ellsbury has a .385 OBP, scored 31 runs and stolen 19 bases while only being caught once. Lester has gotten better as the year has progressed and now seems to have his strength back to where it was before his cancer diagnosis. His ERA is 3.41 on the year and 2.05 in the month of May. He has been walking fewer batters and striking out more, and following his no hitter, seems ready to make the leap to being one of the better pitchers in the league instead of an ordinary back-of-the-rotation guy.

Masterson and Lowrie were expected to be included in any package for Santana, whether it was to be headlined by Lester or Ellsbury. Both were regarded as being capable of playing for a team not expected to contend, but most likely to start the season in the minors if they stayed with Boston. Both players did start the season in the minors (Masterson in AA Portland and Lowrie in AAA Pawtucket), but have already made appearances with the Big League club. Masterson has made 2 spot starts for the Red Sox this season and in those two starts he has a 1.46 ERA with 9 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched. Though he is back in Pawtucket, Masterson is probably ready to contribute in Boston from the bullpen on a regular basis. Lowrie played a 17 game stint in the Majors earlier this season while Mike Lowell was on the disabled list. Filling in at thirdbase and shortstop, Lowrie hit .310 with 7 RBI and did well enough that regular shortstop Julio Lugo has to be on notice that if his play slips too much, Lowrie could slide in as the everday shortstop.

It is still far to early to draw the final conclusion that Boston definitively made the right move by retaining its young talent. None of these players has yet played a complete season in the Majors and it is impossible to say what kind of Big Leaguers they will be. However, this season they have all already made significant contributions to helping a first place team win games. Since Boston already has an top tier ace pitcher in Josh Beckett, the need to acquire Santana was much less than a team like the Yankees who have struggled without a definitive ace to take the ball once every five days, thus making the decision not to complete the trade a little easier. If even half of these players reach the expectations that have been set for them, the decision to keep them was the right one. The future is impossible to predict, especially when it comes to baseball prospects, but you have to like what you’ve seen from these four so far, and at least for this season, Red Sox management has been right on in their assessments.