The Sports Don Returns with His 2009 AL East Preview

After a J.D. Drew-like stint on the disabled list of blog writing, I, like baseball, have returned. For real this time. Let me begin by expressing my sincerest apologies to my readers whom I promised a return to the spotlight weeks ago only to vanish like a ninja once again. Thanks as always for your support and readership. Without getting too mushy-gushy, welcome to the first of a seven-part series previewing each division, day by day, leading up to an all encompassing culmination piece on opening night next Sunday.

Preview numero uno, my beloved American League East. The best division in the game.

1. BOSTON RED SOX (95-67, second place and AL Wild Card in 2008)

Although it took seven games, the Red Sox were another steppingstone for the Tampa Bay Rays during their meteoric rise in ‘08. But the fact Boston even made it to a Game 7 of the American League Championship Series was a true testament of the level of talent Theo & Co. have collected. While Mike Lowell was out, David Ortiz and Josh Beckett were battling injury, and with Jason Varitek unable to hit a fastball if it was the size of a bus in last season’s ALCS, the Sox enter 2009 rejuvenated, with an enviable pitching staff, and a slue of injury plagued players Boston hopes will make a significant impact.

Unlike the New York Yankees, the Sox didn’t sign any marquee free agents this past winter, but my hometown bias aside, it’s because they didn’t need to. Boston signed John Smoltz (210-147, 3.26 ERA career), Brad Penny (32-13, 3.65 ERA in his last two healthy seasons), Takashi Saito (81 saves, 1.95 ERA career), Rocco Baldelli and traded Coco Crisp to Kansas City for Ramon Ramirez (2.64 ERA in 71.2 innings in ’08). As Jayson Stark wrote on ESPN earlier this month, "One team tried to solve its problems with $423 million worth of free agents. The other team brought in a bunch of guys who spent about 423 million days in the trainer's room."

Boston has obvious injury concerns both potentially and rehabilitation wise, Jonathan Papelbon’s contract situation to deal with, and the question of whether or not Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester will continue to excel. That said, with a team that boasts 13 all-stars, the AL MVP, an elite closer, four gold glovers, and an exceptional pitching staff front to back, there is no reason to think that when the Rays fall back to Earth (as I’m predicting) the Sox won’t be stepping back into the top spot.

If the Sox enter the playoffs with a healthy Smoltz, a four man rotation of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K and Smoltz has a combined 27-9 record in the postseason. That’s scary good.

2. NEW YORK YANKEES (89-73, third place)

Thanks to offseason spending that makes you wonder if they’re printing money, the Yankees have become a popular pick to capture the AL East and make a serious run at World Series championship 27. And while I expect the boys from the Bronx to improve vastly from last season’s dreadful and not-so-shocking performance, I don’t expect the acquisitions of Cookies & Cakes Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira alone to catapult the Yanks back into the position of the game’s alpha dog.

Regardless of the financial investment, three players won’t make a team, and therefore, questions abound in the Big Apple. Sabathia will need to win 20 games, a feat he’s never accomplished in his career, to replace last season’s win total of the now retired Mike Mussina. Burnett’s tendency for appearing on the disabled list is well documented, and while Teixeira’s all-around talent is unparalleled by most, the now once again Oakland Athletic Jason Giambi hit 32 homeruns in 2008, one less than Teixeira, and Giambi did it in 12 less games and 116 fewer at-bats. Mariano Rivera (39), Jorge Posada (37), Andy Pettitte (36), Johnny Damon (35), Derek Jeter (34) and Hideki Matsui (34) are all another year older. Other lingering uncertainties include Robinson Cano’s ability to bounce back from an extremely disappointing 2008, Chien-Ming Wang, Matsui and Posada rebounding from injury and what the Yanks should expect from Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. And if you tell me the New York brass isn’t still kicking itself over not trading for Johan Santana because it was unwilling to part ways with Kennedy, I’ll call you a liar. 

With all that typed, we’re forgetting Alex Rodriguez’ injury, ongoing steroid drama and how it will affect the clubhouse, along with the well-known fact that Joe Girardi’s approach isn’t quite ideal for a manager who has to deal with the New York press, scandal and a payroll as high as the Yankees’.

New York will improve, but there are too many questions and too much competition within the division to crown the Yanks.

3. TAMPA BAY RAYS (97-65, first place and AL champions)

The Rays were the beneficiary of three significant happenstances in ‘08: career years by a large portion of their roster, the slip of the Yankees, and the Red Sox’ injury woes in the ALCS. With the dawn of the 2009 regular season about to break, New York has reloaded, Boston has retooled and for the most part, their injuries have healed. While it would be moronic to suggest Tampa Bay will return to the bottom of the East, it is fair to presume the Rays will take a step back, even if it’s a small one.

The Rays enjoyed career years from James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson (traded to Detroit), J.P. Howell, Jason Hammel, Grant Balfour, Dioner Navarro, Willy Aybar, Jason Bartlett, and Eric Hinske (signed with Pittsburgh) who had his best season since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2002. A long list, isn’t it? Their bullpen went from perennially horrific to third in the AL with a 3.55 ERA, their team ERA was 3.82 (third best in the majors) and their team defense was second best in the AL after finishing last in 2007. This offseason, Tampa Bay added power with Pat Burrell and his 251 career homeruns, and are anticipating the healthy returns of Carl Crawford (missed 53 games in ’08) and B.J. Upton (bothered by an injured shoulder regardless of playing in 145 regular season games). Despite their lack of a true closer, the Rays don’t appear to have any glaring weaknesses, and the team will be tested early with three of their first four series against the Red Sox, Yankees and Chicago White Sox.

There isn’t much evidence to support a collapse, just the belief that lightning generally doesn’t strike twice. Assuming good health, Tampa Bay will contend if its pitching lives up to expectation, Evan Longoria avoids a sophomore slump and David Price eventually has the impact the entire world seems to think he will. Albeit, barring another set of career years, the Rays will need a lot of extraordinarily spectacular things to happen a second consecutive year or they’ll be looking up come October.

4. TORONTO BLUE JAYS (86-76, fourth place)

The Blue Jays have averaged 85 wins over the past three seasons and while that would make Toronto a contender in every other division in baseball, it’s good enough for fourth in the AL East. To make matters worse, rather than mimicking the improvement of Tampa Bay, unfortunately for the Jays and their fans, Toronto will look more like the Baltimore Orioles in ’09.

Toronto boasts one of the game’s premier pitchers in Roy Halladay, and there’s no reason to think he won’t put up Cy Young caliber numbers yet again, but the rotation following the ace leaves much to be desired. Shaun Marcum may miss the entire season due to Tommy John surgery leaving Jesse Litsch (13-9, 3.58 ERA in ’08) and the unproven David Purcey (3-6, 5.54 in 12 career starts) with a lot of responsibility, and the team’s once stellar closer, B.J. Ryan, can’t find 90 MPH on the radar gun. The Jays’ offense was putrid in ’08 as the team finished in the lower third of the AL in runs, hits, homeruns, RBI, batting average, and on-base and slugging percentages. Only Vernon Wells had 20 homeruns, and Alex Rios led Toronto with 79 RBI. The Jays are hoping for big things from young outfielder Travis Snider (who could make a run at ROY if David Price spends a lengthy amount of time in the minors) and need big things from Wells, Rios and bounce back seasons from Lyle Overbay (possible) and Scott Rolen (highly unlikely).

Since the Jays' front office signed zero new free agents to a major league contract this offseason, the lineup doesn’t hit for power or average and doesn’t steal bases (besides Rios), it should alarm any Toronto fan when the team says it’s going to rely on its offense to help carry the load due to their pitching woes.

The Jays need everything to go right in order to contend for third in the East.

5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES (68-93, last place)

The Orioles haven’t made the playoffs since 1997 and don’t expect that Ripkenesque streak to end this year. Baltimore has some real talent offensively in soon-to-be perennial all-star Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, Melvin Mora, Ty Wigginton, the often overlooked Aubrey Huff, and 22-year old Matt Wieters who is considered the best hitting prospect in baseball and ready to make the move to the majors soon. The team will play good defense and even possesses an above average bullpen bolstered by the return of Chris Ray and the emergence of Jim Johnson. With that said, their starting rotation is one of the worst in the game. It’s beyond bad which doesn't bode well in the AL East.

The part of my brain loosely titled “uncommon sense” pleaded with me to catapult the O’s over Toronto for the fourth spot, but their starting rotation is that terrible, especially in homerun happy Camden Yards. Ace Jeremy Guthrie posted a 3.66 ERA in the previous two seasons, but after the righty, the career ERAs of the remainder of the starting staff are 4.80, 5.07 and 9.31. I’ll spare their names to save them the embarrassment. Koji Uehara has journeyed over from Japan to become Baltimore’s projected number two starter behind Guthrie, but according to ESPN, Uehara couldn’t stay in his team’s starting rotation in Japan. Sounds like a guy I’d want if I were an Oriole fan. Baltimore had the second worst ERA in baseball last year at 5.13, and the chances of that perpetually bad statistic improving are slim.

The Orioles will score runs in ’09 but will also find themselves in last place from Day 1 on as the team opens its season against the Yankees and Cookies and Cakes.

If you disagree with my opinion, would like to share your own or want to tell me this is the most intelligent post you've ever read, email TheSportsDon@gmail.com.