The Sports Don's 2009 AL Central Preview

It’s Day Two of The Sports Don’s 2009 Baseball Preview, and I present perhaps the toughest division in baseball to predict. The American League Central could finish in any order, and I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised. And yes, that includes the upstart Kansas City Royals winning the division for the first time since 1985 when George Brett was 32, and the Royals defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series.

I don’t foresee that miraculous event actually occurring, but the Royals and their youthful core could make some noise in a division that features strong Minnesota pitching and a few scary lineups.

To read yesterday’s AL East Preview, click here.

1. MINNESOTA TWINS (88-75, second place in 2008)

Like most baseball number crunchers believe, pitching wins championships, and although the Twins’ staff may still be a bit young to fight through the top three AL East teams and the Los Angeles Angels into the World Series, it should be good enough to come out atop in the Central.

Along with an elite closer in Joe Nathan (40 save per season average in his five years in Minnesota), the Twins feature a strong starting rotation composed of Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins. Minnesota’s team ERA of 4.16 was middle of the road in 2008, but each of the aforementioned starters not named Liriano won at least 11 games, and Liriano, who is still on his way back from Tommy John surgery, went 6-1 in his final 11 starts last year with a 2.74 ERA while striking out nearly a batter an inning. Slowey and Perkins have both impressed this spring with a combined 2.23 ERA in 40 1/3 innings, and Liriano has shown signs of his potential Cy Young candidacy minus a rough outing against the Red Sox last week. The bullpen has some questions, but if manager Ron Gardenhire can finagle the lead to Nathan, it’s a done deal.

The Twins will play good defense and steal bases, and although their lineup won’t be confused with Murderers’ Row, if the pitching lives up to its potential, they should score enough runs to win. Justin Morneau will have another MVP type year from the cleanup spot, Jason Kubel’s stock should continue to rise while Denard Span proves himself as a true major league leadoff hitter. Joe Mauer’s health is a concern as he’ll begin the season on the disabled list, but Minnesota hopes the acquisition of Joe Crede at third can replace the offense that will be lacking in the catcher’s absence.

Assuming no catastrophes injury wise to Morneau or Nathan, the Twins should be poised for their fifth division title in eight years.

2. CLEVELAND INDIANS (81-81, third place)

The Indians exited their home stadium on October 16, 2007 with a 3-1 advantage over Boston in the American League Championship Series. Cleveland was feeling good and looking better, but much has happened since. Josh Beckett exhibited his postseason dominance, J.D. Drew hit a $14 million grand slam, and in '08, Victor Martinez disappointed, Travis Hafner fell off the face of the planet, C.C. Sabathia was traded, and Fausto Carmona, who went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA in '07, pitched miserably en route to an 8-7 record and a 5.44 ERA. Needless to say, the Indians haven’t won another playoff game.

Luckily for the Tribe, Jake Westbrook suffered an injury last spring that kept future Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee on the major league roster. Lee came out of nowhere to dominate with a 22-3 record and a 2.54 ERA (second best in the majors behind Johan Santana’s 2.53). Still, there are no certainties on Cleveland’s staff. Lee will have a lot of pressure to repeat his '08 performance and will be followed in the rotation by Carmona, Carl Pavano, Scott Lewis and Anthony Reyes who are a combined 110-116 overall with more than a third of those victories coming from Carmona in '07 and Pavano in 2004 (18 wins). In the bullpen, Jensen Lewis (13 for 13 in save opportunities in '08) is ready to step in for newly acquired Kerry Wood when he is inevitably sidelined with an injury.

Offensively, the Indians are more of a sure thing. Grady Sizemore is the best leadoff man in baseball, Jhonny Peralta is morphing into one of the better hitting shortstops, and right fielder Shin-Soo Choo has become the sweetheart of many a fantasy forecaster. If Martinez can rebound from injury and Hafner, who has more strikeouts this spring than hits, is anywhere close to the slugger he was in 2006 when he hit 42 homeruns and drove in 117, Cleveland’s lineup will be dangerous to the best of staffs.

The offense will do its job, but the Tribe will still need superb seasons from Lee and Carmona in addition to serviceable contributions from the remainder of the starting rotation to compete for the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Indians’ pitching will probably make a lot of lineups look dangerous in '09.

3. KANSAS CITY ROYALS (75-87, fourth place)

Although I don’t anticipate any team in the majors will duplicate Tampa Bay’s surprising startup success story of last season, if you forced me to pick one team who could, it would be the Royals.

Kansas City has promising young pitching and hitting, finished last season winning 18 of 26, added speed and fielding in Coco Crisp and sheer power in Mike Jacobs (who could be the Royals first 30 homerun hitter since Jermaine Dye in 2000), while showcasing one of baseball’s best closers in Joakim Soria and potential Cy Young winner Zack Greinke who went 5-3 with a 2.32 ERA in his final 10 starts of '08. Gil Meche struggled mightily to begin last season but posted a 3.36 ERA after May 1. Kyle Davies and Mark Teahen will be definite bonuses if Davis continues to pitch the way he did in September, when he was 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA, and Teahen bats as he has this spring with a .500 average.

In a division that has no true powerhouse, should Alex Gordon and Billy Butler mature and finally put up the power numbers they did in the minors, the Royals could be contenders.

4. CHICAGO WHITE SOX (89-74, first place and lost in the ALDS)

The White Sox surprised a lot of people last year when they played their way to a division title thanks largely in part to the success of young pitchers Gavin Floyd (17-8, 3.84 ERA) and John Danks (12-9, 3.32).

Along with Mark Buehrle, Chicago’s staff has perhaps the best front three in the Central to go along with four players (Carlos Quentin, Paul Konerko, Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye) with 30-homer potential, and third baseman Josh Fields should hit around 25. Alexi Ramirez will bat leadoff, make the move from second to short and continue to be a threat at the plate and on the base paths. The bullpen is strong and anchored by Bobby Jenks (averaged 37 saves over the last three seasons) with Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton and Octavio Dotel bridging the gap.

The potential downfall for the ChiSox is their team’s injury susceptibility. Bartolo Colon and Jose Contreras will be counted on to bolster the bottom of the rotation and have recent injury woes, Quentin is returning from a self-inflicted broken wrist, Konerko battled an injured thumb for much of '08, and there’s some anxiety about Buehrle's workload over the last eight seasons as he's totaled 1796 1/3 innings.

Like every team in this division, if young players continue to improve, and the veterans avoid injury, the White Sox have a legitimate chance. The problem is that many on the squad could easily be injured by a strong gust of wind.

5. DETROIT TIGERS (74-88, last place)

Against common sense, the Tigers quickly became a trendy pick to win the Central after the acquisitions of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Florida Marlins prior to the '08 season. Detroit began last year 0-7, then 2-12, and all the hype had vanished midway through April.

Even with a relatively potent lineup, the pitching still isn’t there for the Tigers. Justin Verlander took a major step back in '08 loosing 17 games after going 35-15 through 2006-07, and Willis can’t find the strike zone to save his job. Edwin Jackson was acquired from Tampa Bay after winning 14 games following just 11 wins in 46 career starts over his previous five seasons. Jeremy Bonderman will return after two in-season surgeries to remove a blood clot, but he is yet to find the low 90s with his fastball. Armando Galarraga won 13 games as a rookie, but went 6-5 with a 4.00 ERA in the second half of '08. The Detroit bullpen blew the second most saves in the AL last season, and with Brandon Lyon brought in to close and flame-thrower Joel Zumaya already on the DL with a sore pitching shoulder, I’m not sure that number is going to improve.

Cabrera could win the MVP, Curtis Granderson is a stud (in the fantasy world anyway), and Magglio Ordonez should bat well over .300, hit 25 homeruns and drive in around 120. The Tigers offense is good, and their defense is even better, but they don’t appear to have the pitching to be a serious contender entering the season.

Stay tuned tomorrow for The Sports Don’s AL West preview.

If you disagree with my opinion, would like to share your own or want to tell me this is the most intelligent post you've ever read, email TheSportsDon@gmail.com.