The Sports Don's 2009 NL West Preview

The National League West is not a division too many people are getting overly excited about entering the 2009 season. The return of Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles has made the Dodgers the division’s lone true contender for the World Series. Arizona will go as far as its pitching takes it, which could be far, but other than that, there’s not a whole lot to pontificate upon. Yet, somehow, I still managed to write 1,383 words.

To read The Sports Don’s AL East preview, click here, for his AL Central preview, click here, and for his AL West preview, click here.

1.  LOS ANGELES DODGERS (84-78, first place and lost in NLCS in 2008)

The star of the self-titled epic “Mannywood” has returned making the Dodgers one of the most feared lineups in the NL even if Ramirez doesn’t put up the redonkulous numbers he did while in Los Angeles. Should Manny produce at the pace he did after being acquired at the deadline, his year-end totals for ’09 will look something like this: 52 homeruns, 162 RBI, 42 doubles, 107 walks, a .396 batting average and a .489 on-base percentage. That, ladies and gentlemen, would be the greatest season for any hitter all-time.

The Dodger lineup is frightfully deep starting with Rafael Furcal (.357 AVG with five HR, 16 RBI and eight stolen bases in only 36 games last season) at the top of the order all the way down to either Andre Ethier (20, 77, .305) or Casey Blake (21 and 81 between Cleveland and LA). If Matt Kemp and James Loney continue to develop, there isn’t an easy out to be found until the pitcher's spot. The Dodger staff doesn’t offer a true ace, but every scout is in love with Chad Billingsley. Hiroki Kuroda pitched well in his first year in the majors, particularly in the second half when he had a 3.48 ERA, and will pitch in the second spot in the rotation ahead of Clayton Kershaw, who is probably another year or two away from reaching his full potential. The bullpen could present problems, especially if Jonathan Broxton is inconsistent stepping in for the departed Takashi Saito. He signed with Boston, he’s not dead. Reliever Cory Wade was superb from September on allowing four runs on 11 hits and two walks in 21 1/3 innings.

Regardless of how good or bad the pitching is, the Dodgers should win the West based solely on the potency of their lineup and the lack of serious competition from the remaining three teams in the division not named Arizona. After finishing in the top 10 of the Most Valuable Player voting nine times in his 16-year career, Manny is a favorite to finish at the top of that list in ’09.

2. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (82-80, second place)

The Diamondbacks began ’08 going 19-8 in the month of April and evidently peaked far too early as they only had one other winning month after that (14-11 in July). Arizona had the second fewest hits and the third lowest team batting average in the NL, but has entered ’09 determined to rely on its pitching as they only added one player to the starting lineup.

The D-Backs possess one of, if not the best starting one-twos in baseball with potential Cy Young Award winners Brandon Webb and Dan Haren at the top of the rotation. Webb (22-7, 3.30 ERA) was second in Cy Young voting last season making him a career 87-62 with a 3.24 ERA, and that includes his 7-16 record in 2004 despite owning a 3.59 ERA that season. Haren (16-8, 3.33) will strikeout more batters than his counterpart but needs to raise his innings total to equal the victories. Stephen Drew joined Robin Yount and Nomar Garciaparra as the only players in history to hit 40 doubles, 20 homeruns and 10 triples in a single season and will bat in the top third of Arizona’s lineup. The D-Backs’ brass hopes for the continued growth of Conor Jackson and think this is the year Chris Young and Justin Upton will take the next step. Strong seasons from starter Max Scherzer, outfielder Eric Byrnes and new closer Chad Qualls could make Arizona a threat to the Dodgers.

Scherzer is believed to be capable of morphing into a true ace while Byrnes needs to rebound from an injury plagued ’08 when his six HR, 23 RBI and six stolen base totals in 52 games were not even close to the 47, 162 and 75 he put up in 2006-2007.

3. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (72-90, fourth place)

If we lived in a make believe world where we could merge the Dodger lineup with the Giants’ starting pitching, the combination would make for the best team in the game. Unfortunately for San Francisco, this isn’t Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood. The Giants have the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, Tim Lincecum, as well as Matt Cain and two former aces, Randy Johnson and Barry Zito. It’s a scary good rotation especially if Cain can receive some run support and Zito pitches like he did in the second half of ’08 when he went 7-5. The problem here is most baseball fans probably couldn’t name two San Francisco hitters.

The Giants’ offense last season went as catcher Benjie Molina took it, and that wasn’t far. He’ll probably bat cleanup again in ’09 despite never hitting 20 homers in a single season. The team is coming off its fourth consecutive losing campaign and failed to address its one true need: power hitting. Aaron Rowand is only one of two players on the team to hit 20 or more homeruns in a season, and he’s done so just twice in his eight-year career. Rich Aurilia is the other, he’s accomplished the feat four times in 14 seasons, and he’s now San Francisco’s utility infielder. Pablo Sandoval is a hitter scouts and analysts are talking a lot about, but it would take a Ruthien season to make much of a difference.

Cain is 15-30 the last two years but has posted ERAs of 3.65 and 3.76. Johnson needs five wins for 300 career, and should reach that easily while striking out a batter an inning. If every Giants pitcher exceeds expectation, including the bullpen, the team would still need a couple legitimate run producers to make a push. Had the team swooped in and signed Manny away from the Dodgers, San Fran would have been the team to beat out west.

4. COLORADO ROCKIES (74-88, third place)

I hope everyone realizes the Rockies’ run to the World Series two years ago was a complete aberration. Considering it took a record finish in ‘07, and they dropped to 74-88 overall in ’08, the idea shouldn’t be too hard to comprehend.

Colorado endured the largest drop in runs scored by any NL team from ’07 to ’08, and the team traded its best hitter to Oakland this offseason for some prospects and a closer who blew the second most saves in the American League last year (Huston Street). The pitching rotation isn’t awe-inspiring. The team has already lost Jeff Francis for the season following shoulder surgery leaving Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez as the top-two starters, who went a combined 28-21 last year. Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki are two young players the Rockies are expecting a lot from, Todd Helton needs to continue to hit as he has this spring (.515 AVG), and Garrett Atkins needs to improve his .225 average with runners in scoring positions from ‘08.

A little production from the backend of the rotation and strong performances from a bullpen that could just as easily be as horrific as it could be adequate would go a long way. Hey, if that happens, the Rockies could finish third.

5. SAN DIEGO PADRES (63-99, fifth place)

There aren’t a whole lot of good things to say about the Padres. Los Fathers have one great hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, a first baseman who can truly mash hitting 36 dingers despite playing half of his games at the worst ballpark for homerun hitters in the majors, and one great pitcher, Jake Peavy, who went 10-11 in ’08 despite having an ERA under three (2.85). There’s also Kevin Kouzmanoff, who could hit 20 plus homers, and Chase Headley could be decent. Other than that, the Padres pretty much stink. Most of the lineup can’t hit, they don’t steal bases, their defense is mediocre-to-bad, and the pitching rotation and bullpen are below average, not to mention the team has been putrid this spring. San Diego has scored the second fewest runs in the Cactus League while allowing the fourth most. The most exciting thing to happen for the Padres this year will be the prospects they receive when they inevitably trade Peavy to the highest bidder.

Stay tuned tomorrow for the much more exciting NL Central.

If you disagree with my opinion, would like to share your own or want to tell me this is the most intelligent post you've ever read, email TheSportsDon@gmail.com.