The Sports Don's 2009 NL Central Preview

There are only a few sure things in the National League Central this year. The Chicago Cubs will win, the Pittsburgh Pirates will lose, and Albert Pujols will continue to be the best hitter in the NL. The Cincinnati Reds’ staff is intriguing, as is St. Louis’ if Chris Carpenter has a positive impact in his return from injury, and how much will Milwaukee miss CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets?

To read The Sports Don’s AL East preview, click here, for his AL Central preview, click here, for his AL West preview, click here, and for his NL West preview, click here.

1.  CHICAGO CUBS (97-64, first place and lost in NLDS in 2008)

The Cubs’ pitchers led the majors in strikeouts, and their hitters led the NL in runs scored last season making for a pretty potent team that should produce similar totals in 2009. Oft injured Milton Bradley was signed as a free agent, and the temperamental outfielder was the lone batter added to a lineup that already featured Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto. Chicago’s batting order offers some of the best balance in the league in terms of speed, power and average. If Kosuke Fukudome can hit like he did in the first half of ’08 (.296 average) and not like the second half (.207), he can keep his job and be a dangerous lefty in a right-hander oriented lineup.

On the mound, Ryan Dempster hopes to recapture the magic he experienced in ’08 when he went 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA and finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting. When Rich Harden is healthy, which he rarely is, he’s filthy. And then there’s Crazy Carlos Zambrano and lefty Ted Lilly who combined to go 31-15 last year with 314 strikeouts. Kevin Gregg stole the closer job for Carlos Marmol late in the spring, screwing up quite a few fantasy teams, but the pair still makes for a scary one-two at the back of the bullpen.

One concern is the drop in power from Derek Lee. The first baseman’s numbers on offense have declined progressively each season since 2005. As long as the rest of the team’s production doesn’t taper off, the Cubs should go to the playoffs for a third straight year, and do so easily. They’re the most complete team in the division.

2. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (86-76, fourth place)

The Cardinals are an interesting case. Thought to be a non-contender entering last season, the team finished 10 games over .500 and just four games out of the Wild Card. St. Louis received 37 homers from a player, Ryan Ludwick, who only had 34 total in his five previous years in the majors, a MVP season from Pujols, 25 homers from a former pitcher, and a team-high 15 wins from Kyle Lohse, the most victories in his eight-year career. For Tony La Russo, these things tend to happen annually.

The biggest bonus the Card’s could possibly receive this season would be the continued good health of Carpenter. The former Cy Young award winner didn’t allow an earned run in his first 19 innings this spring, and is only a few years and a couple injuries removed from being the best pitcher in the NL. Jason Motte will close after pitching just 11 innings in his major league career, but the converted catcher has struck out 18 guys in 12 1/3 innings in spring training. Starter Adam Wainwright (11-3, 3.20 ERA in 20 games last season) has some serious potential but needs to overcome his own injury problems, and Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer need to continue to surprise in order for the Card’s to stay in the hunt for the division crown. If the pitching falters, despite the presence of Pujols, St. Louis doesn’t have the offense to carry the team.

3. CINCINNATI REDS (74-88, fifth place)

Believe it or not, the Reds starting pitching is the strength of the club and it’s been terrific this spring. Cincinnati will begin the season with a rotation of Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Micah Owings. Thought to be the team’s best pitcher entering ‘08, Harang struggled mightily for most of the season but did produce well in September. If he’s back to his 2007 form when he finished fourth in the CY Young voting, watch out for the new Big Red Machine that is the team’s pitching staff.

In his first full season, Joey Votto made the baseball community recognize. The first baseman outslugged Prince Fielder in the second half of ’08 on his way to 24 home runs, 84 RBI and a .297 average. Brandon Phillips is fun to watch because he refuses to walk, Edwin Encarnacion has lapses mentally but does provide power, and Jay Bruce has potential. The team traded away Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn at the deadline last year to put more emphasis on team speed and defense. Willy Taveras will lead off and play center, and if he can reach first, he’ll steal a lot of bases. Newly acquired Ramon Hernandez could benefit from a change of scenery and catching a pitching staff that isn’t the Baltimore Orioles’.

No matter how well Cincinnati plays, the division appears to be the Cubs’. Still, a strong staff can take a team a long way so the Reds could make some noise if the young rotation continues to develop and dominate.

4. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (90-72, second place, NL Wild Card and lost in NLDS)

The Brewer lineup can score, but there isn’t a whole lot to like about their pitching staff. A lot of analysts are still picking the Brewers to contend, but they’re forgetting Sabathia carried the team over the final six weeks of last season, and Cookies and Cakes is now wearing large pinstripes. Milwaukee lost its best two starters to free agency in Sabathia and Sheets, Yovani Gallardo pitched only 24 innings last season before breaking his leg, Jeff Suppan went 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA in September, Dave Bush will win as many as he loses if he’s lucky, Braden Looper is already injured, and Manny Parra needs to work on his command. Trevor Hoffman was brought in to be the closer, and he’s also injured leaving that situation in flux.

The Brewers possess two players who will hit 35 or more home runs, an additional three who will hit 20 or more and two others who will hit double-digit dingers. The team can also steal bases and play some okay defense. It doesn’t matter how good Fielder and Ryan Braun are, if Milwaukee’s pitching doesn’t deliver, the Brewers look like the Texas Rangers of the NL Central.

5. HOUSTON ASTROS (86-75, third place)

I have a rule. It states that if Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are two members of the same five-man rotation, and it’s not 1999, I’m not picking that team to finish very high in its division.

The Astros' offense is still its strength with sluggers Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee batting three-four. Hunter Pence’s continued maturation after a sophomore slump would be a definite plus. The lineup also features two former American League MVPs in Miguel Tejada and Ivan Rodriguez, but both of those players, Pudge in particular, are on the downslope of their careers. Roy Oswalt doesn’t strike out hitters like he used to, but he will win some games. Jose Valverde, the team’s closer, continues to be one of the elite at his profession.

Houston has some big name players. The major problem is that almost all of them have already played their best ball. The Astros won’t be as bad as Pittsburgh, but I can’t imagine they will finish higher than fourth or fifth. Unless Hampton and Ortiz pitch like it’s 1999. Begin laughing...now.

6. PITTSBURGH PIRATES (67-95, last place)

This was a comment posted on ESPN’s Pirates’ preview page, “For $35 a person you can go to one of the most beautiful stadiums in the country, enjoy unlimited refreshments and depending on the night, if you bring your mitt, you may be asked to play center field.” While center fielder Nate McLouth’s job is safe, that comment isn’t too far off and sums up Pittsburgh’s team pretty well.

Along with McLouth, the Pirates have some good hitters in former batting champion Freddy Sanchez, catcher/outfielder Ryan Doumit and first baseman Adam LaRoche, but there isn’t a lot to be excited about after that quartet. The pitching staff had the worst ERA in NL in ‘08 at 5.08, and management didn’t do anything to better the rotation. Matt Capps was a blessing out of the bullpen last season saving 21 games and allowing just five walks. Unfortunately, Capps won’t have a ton of save opportunities.

The NL Central isn’t particularly deep this season after Chicago, but that shouldn’t stop the Pirates from enduring their 17th consecutive losing season and making history for the longest sub-.500 stretch in professional sports.

Stay tuned tomorrow for The Sports Don's final 2009 division preview: the NL East.

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