The Sports Don's 2009 NL East Preview

The National League has four legitimate contenders for the World Series, and two of those clubs reside in the NL East. Along with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs, the New York Mets and incumbent champion Philadelphia Phillies are the league’s elite. The Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves should have respectable seasons while the Washington Nationals battle with the San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates for the label of most horrendous team in the league.

To read any of the other five division previews, click here.

1.  NEW YORK METS (89-73, second place in 2008)

The Mets and their fans have spent the last two seasons dreaming of the team’s first World Series ring since 1986 only to squander division leads and endure consecutive nightmarish Septembers. New York’s excruciating downfalls have been the result of a perpetually unreliable bullpen, and in an attempt to correct its dilemma, management has completely overhauled the back end of its staff by signing two of the game’s premier relief pitchers in Francisco Rodriguez (major league record 62 saves in ’08 as a member of the Los Angeles Angels) and J.J. Putz (91 saves over the last three years in Seattle).

There is just one member of last season’s bullpen remaining to greet the aforementioned duo, but the starting rotation stayed relatively the same. Two-time American League Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana (16-7, 2.53 ERA in his first season with the Mets) is the staff’s obvious ace and will be followed by John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey and Livan Hernandez, who managed to bamboozle a five million dollar deal from New York despite a 6.05 ERA between Minnesota and Colorado last year. The Met lineup is potent top to bottom and is highlighted by potential Most Valuable Player David Wright, Joe Reyes, and the Carloses Beltran and Delgado. Delgado was an absolute monster in the second half of ’08 hitting 24 home runs and driving in 70, and second-year man Daniel Murphy is slotted between Reyes and Beltran furthering his chances for a big ’09.

Unless New York suffers another monumental collapse in the latter portion of the season, which is less likely now that the bullpen woes appear to be solved, the Mets won’t finish any lower than second in the East. The Wild Card seems to be a worst-case scenario, regardless.

2. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (92-70, first place and WS Champions)

For consecutive years, the Phillies were the beneficiary of a late season New York catastrophe and in ’09 the team rode its good fortune to a World Series championship. The team’s first since 1980. How likely is a repeat? Well, as CBS Sports stated so eloquently, “No team has won back-to-back World Series since the New York Yankees claimed three in a row from 1998 through 2000. The last National League team to repeat as champs was the 1975-76 Cincinnati Reds. An NL team hasn't even won back-to-back pennants since the 1995-96 Atlanta Braves.” Needless to say, Philadelphia has its work cut out for it.

Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard may be the best top four in any order in the NL, and the addition of Raul Ibanez and the supposed growth of Jayson Werth will be bonuses. The Phillies scored 800 runs last season and did so with Howard in a prolonged slump, Rollins playing inconsistently and Utley hampered by a hip injury that required surgery in the offseason, so look for the already scary offense to improve. Despite what appears to be a quality rotation on paper, the pitching staff is a question. Ace Cole Hamels has dealt with an injury this spring, Jamie Moyer is approaching 100-years old and Brett Myers was sent down to the minors last year. Joe Blanton and Chan Ho Park round out the rotation and could provide quality innings, but no one would be too surprised if they didn’t. If the lead gets to Brad Lidge, it’s lights-out for the opposition as the closer looks to continue hit perfect save steak with Philadelphia (48 for 48 in ’08). 

As long as the Phillies avoid a post World Series hangover, they are one of, if not the premier team in the NL entering ‘09.

3. ATLANTA BRAVES (72-90, fourth place)

The Braves were plagued by injuries last season, especially to their starting rotation, and as a result, the Atlanta brass brought in two durable pitchers when it signed Derek Lowe and traded prospects to the Chicago White Sox for Javier Vazquez. Lowe has pitched more than 200 innings five times since 2002 along with 199 1/3 innings in 2007 and 182 innings in 2004. Vazquez accomplished the feat eight times in his 11-year career including a 198 inning season. The additions of those two players alone should keep the bullpen from being overworked.

There is another injury concern on offense and that’s all-time Brave Chipper Jones. Jones flirted with .400 in ’08, and finished with a .364 average, 22 home runs and 75 RBI while missing 34 games. Atlanta also acquired Garret Anderson this offseason, and the team needs shortstop Yunel Escobar and first baseman Casey Kotchman to flourish, Jeff Francoeur to bounce back from an off year, and Brian McCann to continue to be one of the upper echelon hitting catchers to truly make some noise in the top-heavy East.

After 14 division titles in 15 years from 1991-2005, including 11 in a row, the Braves are still a ways away from beginning another such streak.

4. FLORIDA MARLINS (84-77, third place)

Much of the Marlins’ starting staff is filthy and the top three may be the best trio in the NL. Look for young hurlers Ricky Nolasco (15-8, 3.52 ERA last season), Josh Johnson (7-1, 3.61 in 14 starts) and Chris Volstad (6-4, 2.88 in 14 starts) to all win double-digit games and post ERAs well under four.

The offense is equally as youthful and is led by all-world shortstop Hanley Ramirez. Regardless of whether Florida truly contends, Hanley is a definite MVP candidate. In three years with the Marlins, the 25-year old has 79 home runs, 207 RBI, 128 doubles, 21 triples, 981 total bases, 137 stolen bases, a .308 average and a .906 OPS. I don’t have the time to look up the stats of every other player in the majors over the last three seasons, but I get the feeling those all-around numbers are unparalleled by most. As a matter of fact, Ramirez was just the third shortstop in baseball history to have an OPS above .900 before age 25, joining Alex Rodriguez and Hall of Famer Arky Vaughn. Hanley will bat third providing the five-category monster with the opportunity to seriously increase his RBI totals. Dan Uggla won’t posess the most majestic batting average, but he should hit 30 plus home runs along with the resurgent Jorge Cantu who hit 29 home runs and 95 RBI with a .277 average last year, his best season since 2005 after falling off the map in the seasons in between. Centerfield Cameron Maybin and third baseman Dallas McPherson (42 home runs in AAA last year) will be provided with ample opportunity to showoff the skills they displayed while in the minors.

Florida has a boatload of young talent. It may just still be a bit too young to finish the ’09 season with a playoff spot.

5. WASHINGTON NATIONALS (59-102, last place)

There isn’t much to say about the Nationals other than “they stink”. Scott Olsen, a fourth starter for most big league ball clubs, is the team’s ace but will be lucky to finish the season with a winning record and an ERA under 4.50. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is a good young player but his talent and production will be wasted on a team that scored the third fewest runs in the majors last year and did almost nothing to improve its lineup besides allow players to age a year. Lastings Milledge should continue to grow after a strong second half in ’08 when he hit .299 with seven home runs, 29 RBI and 11 stolen bases. Along with Zimmerman, Josh Willingham is probably the only other Nat who will hit 20 or more dingers, but he’ll do so with a .250 batting average. Elijah Dukes had a 1.007 OPS after July 1, and could approach 20 homers, but is just as likely to land as jail as on the all-star team.

I’d begin to go into detail about Washington’s pitching staff, but I don’t know that many negative adjectives. While the Marlins appear a year or two away from the postseason, it seems like decades will pass before the Nationals even make a run.

Stay tuned tomorrow for a special baseball exclusive edition of The Sports Don's Sunday Musings.

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